Turks voted on Sunday in one of the most consequential
elections in the country’s 100-year history, a contest that could end President
Tayyip Erdogan’s imperious 20-year rule and reverberate well beyond Turkey’s
borders.
The presidential vote will decide not only who leads Turkey,
a NATO-member country of 85 million, but also how it is governed, where its
economy is headed amid a deep cost of living crisis, and the shape of its
foreign policy.
Opinion polls have given Erdogan’s main challenger, Kemal
Kilicdaroglu, who heads a six-party alliance, a slight lead, with two polls on
Friday showing him above the 50% threshold needed to win outright. If neither
wins more than 50% of the vote on Sunday, a runoff will be held on May 28.
Polling stations in the election, which is also for a new
parliament, close at 5 p.m. (1400 GMT). Turkish law bans the reporting of any
results until 9 p.m. By late on Sunday there could be a good indication of
whether there will be a runoff.
With Erdogan slightly trailing his rival, Kemal
Kilicdaroglu, the elections are being intently watched in Western capitals, the
Middle East, NATO and Moscow.
A defeat for Erdogan, one of President Vladimir Putin’s most
important allies, will likely unnerve the Kremlin but comfort the Biden administration,
as well as many European and Middle Eastern leaders who had troubled relations
with Erdogan.
Turkey’s longest-serving leader has turned the NATO member
and Europe’s second largest country into a global player from Libya and Syria
to Ukraine, modernized it through megaprojects such as new bridges, hospitals
and airports, and built a military industry sought by foreign states.
But his volatile economic policy of low interest rates,
which set off a spiralling cost of living crisis and inflation, left him prey
to voters’ anger. His government’s slow response to a devastating earthquake in
southeast Turkey that killed 50,000 people added to voters’ dismay.
Kilicdaroglu has pledged to set Turkey on a new course by
reviving democracy after years of state repression, returning to orthodox
economic policies, empowering institutions who lost autonomy under Erdogan’s
tight grasp and rebuilding frail ties with the West.
Thousands of political prisoners and activists, including
high level names such as Kurdish leader Selahattin Demirtas and philantropist
Osman Kavala, could be released if the opposition prevails.
POLARISED POLITICS
“I see these elections as a choice between democracy and
dictatorship,” said Ahmet Kalkan, 64, as he voted in Istanbul for Kilicdaroglu,
echoing critics who fear Erdogan will govern ever more autocratically if he
wins.
“I chose democracy and I hope that my country chooses
democracy,” said Kalkan, a retired health sector worker.
Erdogan, 69 and a veteran of a dozen election victories,
says he respects democracy and denies being a dictator.
Illustrating how the president still commands support,
Mehmet Akif Kahraman, also voting in Istanbul, said Erdogan still represented
the future even after two decades in power.
“God willing, Turkey will be a world leader,” he said.
Voters elsewhere in the country also expressed views for and
against Erdogan, a polarising figure hoping to extend his tenure as the
longest-serving ruler since modern Turkey was established 100 years ago.
Erdogan, voting in Istanbul, shook the hands of election
officials and spoke to a TV reporter in the polling station.
“We pray to God for a better future for our country, nation
and Turkish democracy,” he said. He later travelled to Ankara, despite having
said he would monitor the election from Istanbul.
A smiling Kilicdaroglu, 74, voted in Ankara and emerged to
applause from the waiting crowd.
“I offer my most sincere love and respect to all my citizens
who are going to the ballot box and voting. We all miss democracy so much,” he
told the assembled media.
The parliamentary vote is a tight race between the People’s
Alliance comprising Erdogan’s Islamist-rooted AK Party (AKP) and the
nationalist MHP and others, and Kilicdaroglu’s Nation Alliance formed of six
opposition parties, including his secularist Republican People’s Party (CHP),
established by Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.
Voting was being monitored by a mission from the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which said it would
deliver a preliminary statement on Monday on its findings.
CHANGE OR CONTINUITY
Erdogan, a powerful orator and master campaigner, has pulled
out all the stops on the campaign trail. He commands fierce loyalty from pious
Turks who once felt disenfranchised in secular Turkey and his political career
has survived an attempted coup in 2016, and numerous corruption scandals.
However, if Turks do oust Erdogan it will be largely because
they saw their prosperity and ability to meet basic needs decline, with
inflation that topped 85% in Oct. 2022 and a collapse in the lira currency.
Kilicdaroglu says he would seek to return Turkey to the
parliamentary system of governance, from Erdogan’s executive presidential
system passed in a referendum in 2017. He has also promised to restore the
independence of a judiciary that critics say Erdogan has used to crack down on
dissent.
Erdogan has taken tight control of most of Turkey’s
institutions and sidelined liberals and critics. Human Rights Watch, in its
World Report 2022, said Erdogan’s government has set back Turkey’s human rights
record by decades.
Kurdish voters, who account for 15-20% of the electorate,
will play a vital role, with the Nation Alliance unlikely to attain a
parliamentary majority by itself.
The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) is not part
of the main opposition alliance but fiercely opposes Erdogan after a crackdown
on its members in recent years.
Source - Reuters
- Agencies
